Falsifiability: How to Test GTE
A zero-parameter theory is maximally falsifiable. Every output is a prediction that could have failed. The complete GTE prediction register — what confirms, what tensions remain, and what experiments would definitively refute the framework.
Why a Zero-Parameter Theory Is Maximally Falsifiable
The Standard Model has 19 free parameters (plus at least 3 for neutrinos) that can absorb discrepancies. If a measurement disagrees, the SM can accommodate it by adjusting a parameter. A single disconfirming measurement is not fatal.
All comparisons on this page use PDG 2024 for particle physics observables and NuFIT 6.0 IC24 NH for neutrino parameters.
Confirmed Predictions
The following predictions agree with experimental measurements at sub-1σ precision. All are zero-parameter derivations.
| Observable | GTE prediction | Measurement | σ | Cert. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMB spectral tilt ns | 1 − ln2/(2π²) = 0.96488 | 0.9649 ± 0.0042 | +0.004 | CatAL |
| Baryon asymmetry ηB | 6.109 × 10−10 | (6.10 ± 0.06) × 10−10 | +0.15 | CatAL |
| PMNS solar sin²θ₁₂ | 4/13 = 0.3077 | 0.308 ± 0.012 | −0.02 | CatAL |
| PMNS reactor sinθ₁₃ | 11/73 = 0.1507 | 0.1489 ± 0.004 | +0.23 | CatAL |
| CKM CP phase δCKM | 68.51° | 68.5° ± 2.5° | 0.00 | CatAL |
| Weinberg angle sin²θW | 0.23129 (two-loop) | 0.23121 ± 0.00004 | +0.038 | CatAD |
| ΩΛ (bracket) | [3π/14, 0.6899] | 0.6889 ± 0.0056 | in bracket | CatAD |
| Higgs VEV vPSC | 246.16 GeV | 246.22 GeV | −0.024% | CatAL |
| Higgs mass mH | 125.25 GeV | 125.20 ± 0.11 GeV | +0.45 | CatAD |
| Dark matter ΩDMh² | 0.11994 | 0.12011 ± 0.0012 | −0.15% | CatAD |
Current Tensions
| Observable | GTE prediction | Measurement | σ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMNS atmospheric sin²θ₂₃ | 19/42 = 0.4524 | 0.470 ± 0.015 | −1.0 | Open; depends on higher-order corrections |
| PMNS CP phase δCPPMNS | 4/7 × 360° = 205.71° | 212° ± 26° | −0.15 | Consistent; DUNE/Hyper-K to sharpen |
| Strong coupling αs(MZ) | 0.1176 (one-loop) | 0.1180 ± 0.0009 | +1.5 | Two-loop matching correction needed |
| Ngen = 3 enforcement | exactly 3 generations | No 4th generation found at LHC | confirmed | Lean-certified; 7 independent proofs |
Clean Falsification Criteria
The following are measurements that would definitively refute GTE at >3σ confidence with no available escape route. Each has a named experiment and timeline.
Honest Limitations: What GTE Cannot Predict
A theory with zero free parameters should not be expected to predict everything. Some quantities require more theory machinery than currently exists in the GTE framework. These are not failures — they are open research targets.
- Full CKM matrix (all four parameters): The CKM CP phase δCKM is derived (CatAL). The three mixing angles θ₁₂, θ₁₃, θ₂₃ require additional orbit-topology analysis that is underway but not certified.
- Full neutrino mass spectrum: The mass ordering and total sum (Σmν = 59.4 meV) are predicted. The individual masses m₁, m₂, m₃ require a Lean-certification of the neutrino cascade formula (currently CatA).
- Two-loop QCD coupling: αs(MZ) at one loop gives 1.5σ tension. A two-loop matching calculation is the named resolution pathway.
- Gravitational wave source distributions: The domain-wall annihilation at TG ≈ 0.70 GeV predicts a stochastic GW background, but the spectral shape requires a numerical simulation (currently underway).
Key Points
- GTE's zero-parameter structure makes it more falsifiable than the Standard Model — any confirmed out-of-band measurement is fatal with no parameter to absorb it.
- The thirteen strongest confirmations include ns at +0.004σ, ηB at +0.15σ, sin²θW at +0.038σ, CKM CP phase at 0.00σ, and Higgs mass at +0.45σ — all zero free parameters.
- Current tensions: sin²θ₂₃ at −1.0σ and αs at +1.5σ. Neither constitutes a confirmed falsification; both have named resolution pathways.
- Fatal falsification criteria: any confirmed axion, dark photon, or sparticle; proton dimension-4 decay; r > 0.01; ns outside [0.95, 0.98]; inverted neutrino hierarchy.